南京市交通出行结构演变关联性分析
Correlation Analysis of the Evolution of Nanjing Traffic Trip Structure

城市机动化的快速提高在为城市发展注入新活力的同时，也带来环境污染等一系列问题。其中私家车出行是城市交通污染的重要来源，合理优化大城市各类交通方式的出行比例，是降低环境污染的有效途径之一。为研究南京市交通出行结构演变和关联性分析，为南京市制定交通发展策略提供参考，以南京市近15年的城市发展数据和交通出行数据为依据，采用相关性分析的方法，总结出南京市私家车出行，常规公交出行和轨道交通出行在内的各类交通出行方式与城市社会经济发展的关系，研究结果表示，私家车出行和轨道交通出行与城市社会经济的发展呈现出正相关关系，而常规公交的出行比例会随着城市社会经济的发展呈下降趋势。
The rapid improvement of urban motorization not only injects new vitality into urban develop-ment, but also brings a series of problems such as environmental pollution. Among them, private car travel is an important source of urban traffic pollution. Reasonably optimizing the travel proportion of various transportation modes in large cities is one of the powerful ways to reduce environmental pollution. In order to research the evolution and analysis correlation of Nanjing’s traffic travel structure and provide a reference for Nanjing to formulate traffic development strategies, based on the urban development data and traffic travel data of Nanjing in the past 15 years, the method of correlation analysis is used to summarize Nanjing. The relationship between urban private car, conventional bus travel and rail transit-travel, and urban social and economic development, the research results show that private car and rail transit have a positive correlation with urban social and economic development. Meanwhile, the proportion of regular bus declines with the development of urban social economy.