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The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Development in Guangdong Province

DOI: 10.12677/HJDM.2023.131009, PP. 83-97

Keywords: 农村人口老龄化,灰色预测模型,熵权秩和比模型,VAR模型,Aging Rate of Rural Population, Gray Predictive Model, Entropy Weight-Rank Sum Ratio Model, VAR Model

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This paper selects the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 and takes the aging of the rural population in Guangdong, the GDP of agriculture in Guangdong, the precision development of agriculture in Guangdong, and the upgrading of the agricultural industry as the research objects. We use the GM(1,1) model to predict the aging population in Guangdong’s rural areas, use the entropy weight rank sum ratio model to construct Degree of precision agriculture Index and Degree of agricultural industry upgrading index, and then use the VAR model to analyze the intrinsic impact of each variables. The research results show that: firstly, the aging of the rural population has a long-term negative impact on agricultural precision because it is difficult for elderly farmers to master advanced information technology. At the same time, the aging of the rural population has a positive effect on the upgrading of the agricultural industry because aging promotes the development of agriculture towards organization and scale. Secondly, the aging of the rural population has a great positive impact on the agricultural GDP because aging forces agriculture to rely on production efficiency and business innovation. Thirdly, in the long run, the precision development of agriculture and the upgrading of the agricultural industry can effectively promote the development of agriculture. According to the research results, this paper proposes to make full use of the dividends of the elderly to improve the age structure of agricultural production, improve the infrastructure of precision agriculture in Guangdong, establish relevant information platforms and institutions, and put forward suggestions on policies and regulations.


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