基于GM(1,1)模型的四川省人口结构平衡趋势预测
Trend Prediction of Sichuan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

中国人口自然生育年龄水平已经持续长期低于世界更替年水平，甚至正在面临迈向低年龄段生育安全陷阱边缘的潜在危机。人口增长结构呈现负增长的趋势，人口社会老龄化水平持续加深，出生率“人口红利”比例正逐步下降。本文通过分析四川省2011~2020儿童人口和老年人口现状，利用灰色GM(1,1)进行趋势预测分析，预测2021~2025年四川省人口结构的变化趋势，并给出相应的对策建议。方法：选取2011~2020年四川省人口统计年鉴0~14岁和65岁以上的人口数量，利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2021~2025年四川省生育与老龄人口比例。结果：低适龄生育率正与我国老龄化加速相叠加，矛盾突出和面临的挑战继续深化。
The natural fertility age level of China’s population has long been lower than the world’s replace-ment year level for a long time, and it is even facing a potential crisis on the edge of the fertility safety trap of low age groups. The population growth structure presents a negative growth trend, the population aging level continues to deepen and the birth rate “demographic dividend” propor-tion is gradually declining. This paper analyzes the status of child population and elderly population in Sichuan province in 2011~2020, using gray GM(1,1) to conduct trend prediction analysis, predict the trend of population structure in Sichuan province in 2021~2025, and give corresponding coun-termeasures and suggestions. Methods: The number of people aged 0~14 and over 65 from 2011~2020 was selected, and the grey GM(1,1) model was used to predict the ratio of births to ag-ing population in Sichuan Province in 2021~2025. Results: The low-age fertility rate is overlapping with the acceleration of aging in China, and the contradictions and challenges continue to deepen.