生育二孩对于女性工资的异质性影响——基于倾向得分的双重差分分析
Heterogeneous Effects of Having Two Children on Women’s Wages—Double Difference Analysis Based on Propensity Scores

探讨二孩生育惩罚机制的存在性和持续性有助于加深对生育率低迷问题的认识。本文根据中国综合社会调查数据，利用双重差分模型发现：二孩生育惩罚机制存在持久性，但效应水平随时间而逐渐降低。进一步发现，生育二孩对于女性工资的作用机制存在阶层差异性。二孩生育惩罚效应在不同阶层女性中出现的时期也有所不同：低收入阶层仅发生在短期内，中等收入阶层出现在长期，而高收入阶层则在短期和长期内都存在。
Exploring the existence and persistence of a two-child fertility penalty mechanism can help to improve understanding of the problem of low fertility. Using a double difference model based on data from the General Social Survey of China, this paper finds that the two-child birth penalty mechanism is persistent, but the level of effect decreases over time. It is further found that there are class differences in the effect of having a second child on women’s wages. The effect of the two- child birth penalty also varies across women’s strata: it occurs only in the short term for the low- income strata, in the long term for the middle-income strata, and in both the short and long term for the high-income strata.