基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海市老年教育机构建设的预测分析
Prediction and Analysis of the Construction of Shanghai Elderly Education Institutions Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

老年教育对构建学习型社会，充分发展老年人的人力资源以及促进老年人积极参与社会等都具有重要作用，其中教育资源的供给也是影响老年教育发展的因素之一。本文将采用灰色理论中的灰色预测理论，选取上海市老年教育机构数量以及参与人数，通过构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，对上海市未来十年老年教育机构的建设以及服务老人数量进行预测分析。通过预测分析，发现当前上海市的老年教育机构及人数正在稳步上升的趋势，但线下与远程老年教育发展并不均衡的现象。最后提出一定的对策建议，以期老年教育资源的均等化。
Education for the elderly plays an important role in building a learning society, fully developing the human resources of the elderly and promoting the elderly to actively participate in society, among which the supply of educational resources is also one of the factors affecting the development of ed-ucation for the elderly. This paper will adopt the grey prediction theory in the grey theory, select the number of elderly education institutions and participants in Shanghai, and predict and analyze the construction of elderly education institutions and the number of elderly people served in Shanghai in the next ten years by building a grey GM(1,1) prediction model. Through prediction and analysis, it is found that the number of elderly education institutions and people in Shanghai is ris-ing steadily, but the development of offline and remote elderly education is not balanced. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in order to equalize the educational re-sources for the elderly.