碳达峰视角下中国碳排放权行业路径分解研究
Research on Path Decomposition of China’s Carbon Emission Rights Industry from the Perspective of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions

以“碳达峰”为背景下研究中国碳排放权在各行业的路径分解研究，寻找全国碳排放权按照各行业分配时的减排措施。首先，借助灰色关联分析方法对全国碳排放权按门类分八种能源排放量下工业、建筑业、交通运输业、零售餐饮业以及农林牧渔水利业等各行业相关影响因素关联度进行分析，得出工业和建筑业与全国碳排放总量关联度最高。其次，利用GM(1,1)模型对全国的碳排放总量以及各行业分别进行预测，结果显示各行业在维持当下政策时，全国的碳排放总量将还会以0.48%的速率持续增长并预测出在2030年时碳排放总量为9786.46百万吨。最后，根据各行业的公平性、效率性、潜力性以及关联性原则按照熵值法对各行业进行路径分解研究，从而得出分配到各行业的碳减排量与预测出各行业碳排放量的初始空间余额值，为生态环境部制定各行业的配额分配方案时提供政策建议，继而扩大碳市场覆盖行业范围，为全国实现双碳目标提供理论支持。
Under the background of “peak carbon dioxide emissions”, this paper studies the path decomposition of China’s carbon emission rights in various industries, and seeks the emission reduction measures when the national carbon emission rights are distributed according to various industries. Firstly, by using the grey correlation analysis method, this paper analyzes the correlation degree of related influencing factors in industries such as industry, construction, transportation, retail and catering, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, water conservancy, etc., in which the national carbon emission rights are divided into eight kinds of energy emissions, and concludes that the correlation degree between industry and construction and the national carbon emission is the highest. Secondly, the GM(1,1) model is used to forecast the total carbon emissions of the whole country and the industries. The results show that the total carbon emissions of the whole country will continue to increase at a rate of 0.48% when the current policies of all industries are maintained, and it is predicted that the total carbon emissions will be 9786.46 million tons in 2030. Finally, according to the principles of fairness, efficiency, potential and relevance of each industry, the path decomposition of each industry is studied according to entropy method, so as to obtain the carbon emission reduction amount allocated to each industry and the initial space balance value of the carbon emission amount predicted by each industry, which will provide policy suggestions for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment when formulating quota allocation schemes for each industry, and then expand the carbon market to cover the industry scope, and provide theoretical support for realizing the “double-carbon” goal in China.