萧山白对虾气象灾害监测预警技术的研究
Research on Monitoring and Warning Technology of Meteorological Disaster in Xiaoshan White Shrimp

大棚气温调控效果与地域、季节、天气类型、作物种类/养殖品类有关，现阶段研究主要集中在以下几个方面：研究区域多为华中、华东、西北、华北和东北地区；季节多为冬夏季；作物多为蔬菜、水果、林木；资料为逐日或逐时棚内外气温数据。由于技术进步和自动气象站增多，能够提供分钟级气象观测，为大棚气温调控效果精准研究提供了可能。大棚内高、低温灾害分布与地域、季节、天气类型、作物种类/养殖品类有关，现阶段大棚种植/养殖高、低温灾害研究区域主要在华北、东北、华东、华南、华中和西北地区；研究对象多为植物，水产类研究较少；资料为逐日或逐时气温数据。但目前大棚内气象要素预报由当地的区域站预报数据提供，从前人的研究可以发现，大棚内气象要素与当地区域站的预报数据存在很大差异，所以直接用区域站预报作为大棚内气象预报不能够准确为农户提供田间操作指导。外界环境对大棚内气象要素影响很大，所以找到外界和棚内气象要素的关系对于建立大棚内气象要素预报十分重要。本文利用2019年5月~2020年11月萧山地面常规气象观测站逐日日照时数资料、萧山区域站10 min空气温度和大棚内小气候观测站0.12 m处10 min水下温度，分析春、夏、秋季不同天气类型下不同模型对大棚白对虾高、低温灾害监测及预警。
The temperature control effect of greenhouse is related to region, season, weather type, crop type/breeding category. At present, the research mainly focuses on the following aspects: central China, East China, Northwest China, North China and Northeast China; most seasons are winter and summer; crops are vegetables, fruits, trees; and the data is the temperature data day by day or time by time. Due to technological progress and the increase of automatic meteorological stations, it can provide minute meteorological observation, which provides the possibility for the accurate study of the effect of temperature control in greenhouses. The distribution of high and low temperature dis-asters in greenhouses is related to region, season, weather type, crop type/breeding category. At present, the greenhouse planting/breeding disaster research area is mainly in North China, Northeast China, East China, South China, Central China and Northwest China; mostly plants and few aquatic studies; the data are daily or time by time temperature data. However, at present, the forecast of meteorological elements in the greenhouses is provided by the forecast data of local regional stations. Previous studies can find that the meteorological elements in the greenhouses are very different from the forecast data of local regional stations. Therefore, the direct use of regional station forecast as the meteorological forecast in the greenhouses can not accurately provide field operation guidance for farmers. The external environment has a great impact on the meteorological elements in the greenhouse, so it is very important to find the relationship between the outside world and the meteorological elements in the greenhouse to establish the forecast of the meteorological elements in the greenhouse. This paper uses the daily sunshine time data of Xiaoshan ground conventional meteorological observation station from May 2019 to November 2020, 10 min air temperature of 10 min in