All investors are speculators. They profit from
longing an asset and selling it at a higher price or shorting an asset and
buying it at a lower price. This is the fundamental concept of arbitrage.
Although it sounds simple, arbitrage does not always work. Therefore,
researchers have developed systematic and scientific statistical arbitrage
approaches for investigation. In this article, we dived into forming pair
trading portfolios by using the cointegration analysis method. The objects we
investigated are egg, corn, and soybean meal in the future market of China. In
the forming stage of the strategy, we proved the existence of a cointegration
relationship among the three pairs, namely the egg-corn pair, the egg-soybean
meal pair (and the corn-soybean pair. In the back-test study, both the egg-corn
pair and egg-soybean meal pair are profitable.
References
[1]
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
[2]
Gatev, E., Goetzmann, W. N., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2006). Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule. The Review of Financial Studies, 19, 797-827. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhj020
[3]
Hendry, D. F., & Juselius, K. (2000). Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1. The Energy Journal, 21, No. 1. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No1-1
[4]
Shen, L., Shen, K., Yi, C., & Chen, Y. (2020). An Evaluation of Pairs Trading in Commodity Futures Markets. In 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data) (pp. 5457-5462). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/BigData50022.2020.9377766
[5]
Stübinger, J., & Bredthauer, J. (2017). Statistical Arbitrage Pairs Trading with High-Frequency Data. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7, 650-662.
[6]
Xu, H. (2017). High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Master’s Thesis, University of Waterloo.
[7]
Kaiqi, Z., Ronghua, J. & Zhinan, L. (2019). Industry Chain Hedging Plan of Laying Hens Bredding Company. Journal of China Agricultural University, 24, 219-229.
[8]
Wu, Y.H., & Fu, Q. (2018). Analysis of Egg Price Fluctuation and Cause. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 10, 581-587. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v10n11p581
[9]
Zhao, Z., Zhou, R., & Palomar, D. P. (2019). Optimal Mean-Reverting Portfolio with Leverage Constraint for Statistical Arbitrage in Finance. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 67, 1681-1695. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSP.2019.2893862
[10]
Roa, A. A. (2018). Pairs Trading: Optimal Thershold Strategies. Master’s Thesis, Universidad Complutense de Madrid. https://deanstreetlab.github.io/papers/papers/Statistical%20Trading/Pairs%20Trading%20-%20Optimal%20Threshold%20Strategies.pdf
[11]
Yang, J., Li, Z., & Wang, T. (2021). Price Discovery in Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Look. Journal of Futures Markets, 41, 536-555. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22179
[12]
Ao, J., & Chen, J. (2020). Price Volatility, the Maturity Effect, and Global Oil Prices: Evidence from Chinese Commodity Futures Markets. Journal of Economics and Finance, 44, 627-654. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-019-09497-1
[13]
Vidyamurthy, G. (2004). Pairs Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis. John Wiley & Sons.