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博格达山北麓河区洪水特征与变化趋势分析
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Abstract:
依据博格达山北麓河区3处水文站实测洪水资料，采用统计分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Spearman秩相关法，分析了该区洪水特征变化规律及趋势。结果表明：以7月为中心的前后60d，是该区出现大洪水的主汛期，其中阜康白杨河、奇台白杨河和开垦河最大洪峰流量出现频次分别占统计年数的90%、88%、68%。运用线性趋势法和5年滑动平均法进行初步分析，3站系列均呈上升趋势；采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法，白杨河站、开垦河站的年最大流量序列变化趋势显著；采用Spearman秩相关法，白杨河站年最大流量序列通过了Spearman秩相关法95%的显著性检验，表明该序列变化趋势显著。
Based on the measured flood data of three hydrologic stations in the northern Bogda Mountain River basin, the variation law and trend of flood characteristics were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearman rank correlation method. The results show that the main flood season is the 60-day around July, in which the frequency of the maximum flood peak flow of Fukang Baiyang, Qitai Baiyang and Kaiken River stations account for 90%, 88% and 68% of the statistical years, respectively. Using the linear trend method and the 5-year moving-average model, the series of three stations show an upward trend. The annual maximum flow of Baiyang and Kaiken River stations has a significant change trend. The Baiyang River station passes the significance test of 95% using the Spearman rank correlation method. The results show that the variation trend of the sequence is significant.
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