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思贤滘洪水分流比变化及对设计洪水影响研究
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Abstract:
基于马口、三水水文站长系列实测洪水资料，利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变检验等方法，对珠江三角洲顶部节点思贤滘洪水分流比以及马口、三水、思贤滘洪水系列一致性进行研究。研究结果表明：思贤滘节点洪水分流比在20世纪90年代以前较为稳定，1992年以后，分流比发生了显著变化，三水洪水分流比显著增加，近年基本稳定在较高水平；三水站洪水序列亦在20世纪90年代初期发生显著突变。通过分段建立相关关系的方法对马口、三水站洪水序列进行还现，还现后序列无明显趋势性和突变，提出对马口、三水站设计洪水成果按现状分流比进行调整的修订建议。
Based on the flood data of the Makou and Sanshui hydrological stations, the flood diversion ratio and the consistency of flood series in the Makou, Sanshui and Sixianjiao at the top node of the Pearl River Delta are studied by Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt mutation test. The results show that: The flood diversion ratio of Sixianjiao Channel was relatively stable before 1990s, but after 1992, the diversion ratio changed significantly, and the flood diversion ratio of Sanshui increased significantly, and it was basically stable at a high level in recent years. The flood sequence of Sanshui station also changed significantly in the early 1990 s. The flood sequence of Makou and Sanshui stations is reconstructed by the method of building correlation relationship in sections. There was no obvious trend and mutation in the sequence after reconstructed. Based on this, the revision suggestions are put forward to adjust the design flood results of Majou and Sanshui stations according to the current diversion ratio.
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