合肥市垃圾焚烧发电温室气体减排潜力研究
The Study on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential of Waste Incineration Power Generation in Hefei

通过对合肥市中节能公司垃圾焚烧发电项目的研究，首先利用改进的CDM方法学计算2016~2021年该项目产生的温室气体排放量，然后用灰色预测模型对2022~2035年该项目产生的温室气体减排潜力进行预测。预测结果显示：该项目产生的温室气体减排量随着年份的增长不断增加，其中，基准线排放量总是高于垃圾焚烧发电的直接排放量；垃圾焚烧发电的温室气体直接排放量为主要排放源，间接排放和替代排放占比较小，但总体作用使得减排总量呈现逐年上升的趋势，说明未来存在一定的减排潜力。
Based on the research of the waste incineration power generation project of Zhong Energy Saving Company in Hefei, the GHG emissions generated by the project from 2016 to 2021 were calculated by using the improved CDM methodology, and then the GHG emission reduction potential generated by the project from 2022 to 2035 was predicted by using the grey prediction model. The prediction results show that the greenhouse gas emission reduction generated by the project increases with the growth of the year, and the baseline emission is always higher than the direct emission of waste incineration power generation. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from waste incineration and power generation are the main emission sources, while indirect emissions and alternative emissions account for a relatively small proportion. However, the overall effect makes the total emission reduction increase year by year, indicating that there is a certain potential for emission reduction in the future.