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乌江流域水沙序列变化特征及趋势分析
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Abstract:
乌江流域作为三峡库区重要水沙来源，其水沙条件变化对三峡入库水沙特性有着直接影响。本文基于长时段水沙序列，采用小波分析和跃变分析等统计分析方法，对三峡库区入库控制站之一的乌江武隆站水沙资料开展深层规律分析。分析结果表明，武隆站年径流量呈现周期性变化规律，在24a特征时间尺度上，乌江武隆站年径流量变化的平均周期为17年左右，当前乌江水量正处于历史偏枯期，未来2~3年仍将维持偏枯状态，之后将转入丰水期；武隆站2003年以来年输沙量下降趋势明显，但今后输沙量进一步减少的空间有限，未来仍将维持当前较低水平。
As an important source of flow and sediment into the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), the Wujiang River basin has a direct impact on the condition of inflow and sediment of the TGR. Based on a long series of flow and sediment sequences, this paper adopts the methods of wavelet analysis and jump analysis to analyze the deep regularity of the multi-year runoff and sediment data of Wulong station. The analysis results show that the annual runoff presents a cyclical variation law. On a characteristic time-scale of 24a, the average period of annual runoff variation on the Wujiang River is about 17 years. It will remain in a dry state for 2~3 years, and then it will enter the wet season. The sediment has decreased significantly since 2003, and the low amount of sediment will remain in the future.
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