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近50年来滇东岩溶地区极端降水变化分析
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Abstract:
以滇东岩溶地区3个典型气象站1970~2020年逐日降水数据为基础，选取4个极端降水指标，并采用Sen’s斜率法分析、CV值分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法，对比分析了滇东岩溶地区的极端降水事件特征。结果表明：1) 会泽站RX1day呈显著上升趋势且幅度最大，泸西站RX5day和CWD显著下降，3个站点CWD均下降，会泽站和泸西站的CDD均呈上升趋势，砚山站趋势不明显；2) 3个站点四个指标的CV值变化范围分别在0.30~0.35、0.29~0.40、0.30~0.45和0.25~0.35之间，泸西站波动最大，砚山站波动最小；3) Mann-Kendall突变检验中砚山站突变点较多且集中，这是砚山站点与另外两个站点相比最显著的区别，表明砚山站极端降水事件发生的概率较高。综上，总体上降水减少、气候变干旱，所有分析结果均符合气候变化大背景影响下的极端降水时空分布变化趋势。
Based on the daily precipitation data of three typical meteorological stations in the Karst area of eastern Yunnan from 1970 to 2020, four extreme precipitation indexes are selected, and the characteristics of extreme precipitation events are compared and analyzed by using the Sen’s slope and CV value analysis methods as well as Mann Kendall mutation test. The results show that: 1) RX1day of Huize station shows a significant upward trend and the amplitude is the largest, RX5day and CWD of Luxi station decrease significantly, CWD of three stations decreases, CDD of Huize station and Luxi station shows an upward trend, and Yanshan station has no upward trend; 2) The variation range of CV values of the four indicators of the three stations is 0.30~0.35, 0.29~0.40, 0.30~0.45 and 0.25~0.35 respectively. The fluctuation of Luxi station is the largest and that of Yanshan station is the smallest; 3) In Mann Kendall mutation test, there are many concentrated mutation points at Yanshan station, which is the most significant difference between Yanshan station and the other two stations, indicating that the probability of extreme precipitation events at Yanshan station is high. In conclusion, in general, the precipitation decreases and the climate become arid. All the analysis results are in line with the temporal and spatial distribution trend of extreme precipitation under the influence of climate change.
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