基于灰色–马尔可夫模型对中国结婚人数的预测
Prediction of the Number of Marriages in China Based on Gray-Markov Model

中国的老龄化越来越严重，而中国的结婚人数又持续走低，这对中国的年龄结构有很大的影响，劳动力市场也会不完善。因此预测中国的结婚人数有利于制定相关的政策以及采取相应的措施去应对当前形势。本文主要采用灰色–马尔可夫链进行预测，并将其与直接由GM(1,1)模型得到的预测值以及时间序列预测所得的结果进行对比。结果表明利用灰色–马尔可夫链得到的预测值比直接用GM(1,1)模型以及时间序列预测得到的值要好。
China’s aging is getting more and more serious, and the number of marriages in China continues to decline, which has a great impact on China’s age structure and the labor market will be imperfect. Therefore, predicting the number of marriages in China is conducive to making relevant policies and taking corresponding measures for the current situation. In this paper, gray-Markov chain is mainly used for forecasting, and the results are compared with those obtained from time series forecasting. The results show that the predicted values obtained by using gray-Markov chain are better than those obtained by using GM(1,1) model and time series directly.