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基于GAMLSS模型的径流频率分析
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Abstract:
河川径流数据非平稳性的日益凸显，使流域或区域的水文设计与水资源评价面临极大挑战，如何开展有效的水文分析，指导工程设计与流域或区域水资源管理已成为水资源可持续开发与应急灾害管理领域的迫切需求。本文以GAMLSS模型为基础，对马莲河流域不同站点的水文观测资料进行分析，得到了全情景下的水文频率计算结果，并与传统方法进行对比，指出了应对不同工程或规划需要的水文数据筛选方法和处理建议。
The increase of non-stationarity river runoff data poses great challenges to hydrological design and water resources assessment in a basin or a region. How to carry out effective hydrological analysis to guide basin or regional engineering design and water resource management has become an urgent demand for water resources sustainable development and emergency disaster management. The changes of hydrological observation data of various stations in the Malian River basin were analyzed systematically based on the GAMLSS model, and hydrological frequency under different scenarios was calculated. Compared with the traditional hydrological design methods, the issues and suggestions about hydrological data screening and processing to meet the needs of water project design and water resources planning are suggested.
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