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金沙江下游梯级与三峡水库群防洪库容优化分配模型比较研究
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Abstract:
以金沙江下游乌东德–白鹤滩–溪洛渡–向家坝梯级与三峡水库系统为研究对象，建立了变权重剩余防洪库容最大、系统非线性安全度最大、梯级防洪风险率最小3种防洪库容优化分配模型，选取6个典型年的洪水过程，采用逐次淘汰法对各个模型的计算结果进行综合评价。结果表明：基于梯级水库群防洪风险率最小的优化分配模型可以在不降低对下游防洪效果的基础上，使各水库均衡地分摊防洪区域的防洪风险，充分发挥水库群的防洪效益，为最佳的防洪库容分配方案。
The Wudongde-Baihetan-Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River and Three Gorges Reservoir were considered as the objects of study. Three optimal allocation schemes, including the largest variable weight residual flood control storage capacity, the largest system nonlinear safety degree, and the smallest cascade flood control risk rate were established and compared. The typical flood data of 6 years were selected for analysis, and the comprehensive evaluation method was carried out by the successive elimination of the scheme based on the order and degree of efficiency. It is found that the smallest cascade flood control risk rate is the best allocation scheme for the flood control sto-rage capacity of reservoirs group which can make the reservoirs share the risk of the flood control areas, given full play to the flood control benefits of the reservoirs in the condition that the flood control effect of the downstream is not deteriorated.
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