基于熵值法的养老金可持续性评价研究
Research on Pension Sustainability Evaluation Based on Entropy Method

随着人口老龄化的加剧和劳动力人口的下降，实行现收现付的养老金面临着收不抵支的风险，实行积累制的养老金又存在空账运行现象，养老金可持续性受到广泛关注。因此，探索养老金可持续性的影响因素至关重要，基于熵值法划分为经济、社会和资源三大指标，其中经济指标权重最大，在具体的13个指标中，消费增长率和无风险收益率两个指标对养老金可持续性的影响较大，原因在于消费养老的发展以及无风险收益率下降会导致养老金储备减少，并据此提出尽早做养老规划、从所得税中提取养老金、合理使用养老和医疗保险基金的建议，以保证养老金的可持续性。
With the aging of the population and the decline of the labor force, the implementation of the pay-as-you-go pension is facing the risk of not covering the expenditure, and the implementation of the accumulation system of pension exists empty account operation phenomenon, so pension sus-tainability has been widely concerned. Therefore, it is of great importance to explore the influencing factors of pension sustainability. Based on entropy method, it can be divided into three indexes: economic, social and resource, among which economic indexes have the largest weight. Among the 13 specific indexes, consumption growth rate and risk-free rate of return have the greatest influ-ence on pension sustainability. The reason is that the development of consuming pension and the decline of risk-free rate of return will lead to the reduction of pension reserves. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward to make pension planning as early as possible, withdraw pension from income tax, reasonably use pension and medical insurance funds to ensure the sustainability of pension.