基于灰色GM(1, 1)模型的上海市卫生总费用预测分析
Forecasting Analysis of Total Health Costs in Shanghai Based on Grey GM(1, 1) Model

目的：预测上海市卫生总费用及筹资结构的变化情况，为上海市相关部门制定和完善卫生政策提供参考。方法：数据来源于2009~2019年上海市统计年鉴，上海市卫生医疗资源和医疗服务情况简报，采用GM(1, 1)模型，对上海市卫生总费用及筹资结构的变化趋势进行分析。结论：预测结果显示，上海市卫生总费用仍呈上升趋势，其中政府和个人卫生费用支出比例小幅度上升，社会卫生费用支出比例有小幅度下降趋势。
Objective: To predict the changes of total health costs and financing structure in Shanghai, and to provide reference for relevant departments in Shanghai to formulate and improve health policies. Methods: Data were obtained from the 2009~2019 Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, Shanghai Health and Medical Resources and Medical Services Briefing, and the GM(1, 1) model was used to analyze the changing trends of the total cost of health and financing structure in Shanghai. Conclusion: The forecast results show that the total cost of health in Shanghai is still on an upward trend, with a small increase in the proportion of government and personal health expenditure and a small downward trend in the proportion of social health expenditure.