公共服务质量、家庭养老观念对二孩三孩生育的影响及机制研究——基于CGSS2018的实证分析
Research on the Influence and Mechanism of Public Service Quality and Family Pension Concept on Two-Child and Three-Child Fertility—Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2018

我国的少子化现象严重，严重威胁到社会的稳定和发展，为了了解公共服务质量、家庭养老观念对家庭生育二胎三胎意愿的影响及机制，找到提高生育率的有效措施，利用CGSS2018年的数据及2017年中国统计年鉴数据，选取个人特征、家庭特征、社会特征和区域特征，使用Probit模型、Logit模型和泊松回归模型分析居民的二孩三孩生育意愿及影响机制。结果表明公共服务质量和家庭养老观念反向影响居民的二孩三孩生育意愿。通过对公共服务质量和家庭养老观念的影响机制研究，公共服务质量的提升将降低居民的生育意愿，弱化居民的家庭养老观念，同时家庭养老观念会降低公共服务质量对生育的影响。公共服务质量存在挤出效应，家庭养老观念存在挤入效应，增强居民二孩三孩生育意愿应当转变生育宣传角度，加大社会化家庭养老的宣传力度；关注高龄产妇的健康生育；落实生育补偿机制，缓解家庭经济压力。
The phenomenon of low birthrate in our country is serious, which seriously threatens the stability and development of society. In order to understand the impact and mechanism of the quality of public services and the concept of family pension on the willingness of families to have two children and three children, find effective measures to improve the fertility rate. Using the data of CGSS in 2018 and the data of the 2017 China Statistical Yearbook, individual characteristics, family charac-teristics, social characteristics and regional characteristics were selected, and the Fertile model, Logit model and Poisson regression model were used to analyze the fertility intention and influence mechanism of residents with two and three children. The results show that the quality of public services and the concept of family pension affect the willingness of residents to have two or three children. Through the study of the influence mechanism of public service quality and family pension concept, the improvement of public service quality will reduce residents’ willingness to have chil-dren, weaken residents’ family pension concept, and at the same time, the family pension concept will reduce the impact of public service quality on fertility. There is a crowding out effect in the quality of public services, there is a squeeze effect on the concept of family pension, and to enhance the willingness of residents to have two children and three children, we should change the angle of birth publicity and increase the publicity of socialized family pension; Focus on healthy fertility for advanced maternal age; Implement a birth compensation mechanism to alleviate the economic pressure on families.