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时空视角下突发事件网络舆情热度演变分析
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Abstract:
舆情热度分析是突发事件舆情治理的重要环节，国内有很少学者有从时空视角下进行分析的。基于此，文章的网络舆情热度测量指标数据来源于百度搜索指数，选取的突发事件是新型冠状病毒感染肺炎，运用全局空间自相关分析、局部空间自相关分析和灰色关联分析等方法，分析2020-01-09~02-19中国网民对“新型冠状病毒”网络舆情热度的省域时空差异研究与影响机理研究。研究发现：全国各省网民对疫情随时间变化的网络舆情热度趋势趋于一致，广东省和山东省由于人口基数大，舆情热度排名靠前，随着封城和居家隔离政策实施，疫情的发展得到控制，疫情的舆情热度呈下降趋势；突发疫情的网络舆情热度整体上存在空间分异特征非常显著，舆情热度高低以人口密度线即胡焕庸线为界的空间分布格局，舆情热度高的主要分布在分界线以东的地区，舆情热度低的主要分布在分界线以西的地区；确诊人数、治愈人数、城市化率、互联网普及率等都与舆情热度相关，并且确诊人数是影响舆情热度的核心因素。
As an important part of public opinion management of emergencies, the temporal and spatial dif-ferences and influencing factors of public attention are rarely discussed. Therefore, based on re-al-time data of Baidu index, this paper uses real-time epidemic monitoring data and spatial analysis, spatial-temporal visualization, GRA and other methods. Analyzing China’s Provincial Spatial and temporal differences in the popularity of New Coronavirus Internet public opinion and its influenc-ing mechanism from January 9th to February 19th, 2020. The results show that: The trend of In-ternet users’ popularity of the epidemic over time tends to be consistent across the country. Due to the large population base, Guangdong Province and Shandong Province rank high in public opinion popularity. With the implementation of the city closure and home isolation policies, the develop-ment of the epidemic has been controlled, and the popularity of the epidemic decline. Overall, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic network public opinion fever has significant spatial differ-entiation characteristics. The cold hot spot is obviously spatial distribution pattern with “Hu Huan-yong” line as the boundary. The hot spots are mostly located in the east of the line, and the cold spots are located in the west of the line. The number of confirmed cases, cured cases, urbanization rate and Internet penetration rate are all related to the popularity of public opinion, and the num-ber of confirmed cases is the core factor affecting the popularity of public opinion.
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