新能源汽车电池回收中矿产资源的可供性研究
Study on the Availability of Mineral Resources in Battery Recycling of New Energy Vehicles

我国新能源汽车行业蓬勃发展，从新能源汽车发展速度可见将来每年会因车辆报废而产生大量可回收电池。目前新能源汽车电池回收的技术工艺，操作流程和现状分析是国内外的主要焦点议题，但并未对新能源汽车电池矿产的可供种类、规模等问题进行深入研究。因此，本文运用Stanford模型对新能源汽车动力蓄电池的退役量进行预测，以格林美股份有限公司为研究对象，从财务分析的视角讨论我国新能源电池矿产回收现状。研究结果表明：1) 2012年~2020年，我国新能源汽车产销量不断创新高，与动力电池相关的锂、钴、镍等矿产资源处于极其紧缺状态；2) Stanford模型预测新能源汽车动力电池报废量逐年递增，与现实数据拟合结果较好，说明我国矿产资源回收存在巨大的发展空间。基于上述分析，本文将针对合理开发矿产资源，保障矿产资源供给等方面提出相关建议。
With the rapid development of new energy automobile industry in China, a large number of recyclable batteries will be produced every year due to vehicle scrapping. At present, the technical process, operation flow and status analysis of new energy vehicle battery recycling are the main focus issues domestic and overseas, but the available types and scale of new energy vehicle battery mineral resources have not been studied in depth. Therefore, this paper uses Stanford model to predict the retirement amount of new energy vehicle battery, and takes GEM Co., Ltd. as the research object, discusses the present situation of new energy battery mineral resources recovery in China from the perspective of financial analysis. The results show that: 1) From 2012 to 2020, the output and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached a new high, and the mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt and nickel related to power batteries were in extremely short supply; 2) The Stanford Model predicts that the scrap of power battery of new energy vehicle is increasing year by year, and the results fit well with the actual data, which shows that there is a huge development space for mineral resources recovery in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper will put forward some suggestions on the rational development of mineral resources and the supply of mineral resources.