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沂沭泗流域年径流非一致性变化规律分析
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Abstract:
在人类活动和气候变化的共同扰动下，沂沭泗流域的自然水文循环受到影响。因而，对流域水文序列进行非一致性分析有助于科学有效的评估流域水资源量的变化情况。本研究以沂沭泗流域王庄闸水文站上游作为研究区域，收集水文站点及泄洪闸1956~2015年的年径流总量资料及50年代以后长序列年最大洪水资料，采用Mann-Kendall检验方法进行趋势分析，利用Pettitt检验方法进行变点检验。结果表明：1) 沂沭泗流域年径流总量呈显著减少趋势；2) 流域各站点年最大洪水序列均呈下降趋势，且大部分站点通过了显著性0.05的检验。3) 流域年径流总量序列突变时间为1975年。4) 流域年最大洪水的突变时间为1975年前后。
Under the combined disturbance of human activity and climate change, the natural hydrological cycle of Yishu River Basin has been destroyed. Therefore, the non-stationary analysis of the watershed hydrological sequence is helpful to better understand the change of water resources in the watershed. In this study, the upstream of Wangzhuang Sluice hydrological station in the Yishusi River basin was taken as the research area, and the long-term annual maximum flood data after the 1950s and the annual runoff data of each hydrological station from 1956 to 2015 were collected. The trend analysis was conducted by Mann-Kendall test method, and the change point test was conducted by Pettitt test method. The results showed that: 1) The total annual runoff in Yishu River Basin showed a significant decreasing trend; 2) The annual maximum flood series of each station in the basin showed a downward trend, and most of the stations passed the significance of 0.05; 3) The abrupt change of total annual runoff in the study area was 1975; 4) The mutation time of annual maximum flood in the study area was around 1975.
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