基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的山东省卫生总费用预测分析
Analysis of Total Health Cost in Shandong Province Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

基于2011~2019年山东省卫生总费用相关数据，分析山东省卫生总费用现状，运用GM(1,1)模型，预测2020年至2030年山东省卫生总费用的变化趋势。数据显示，模型的精确度都达到了95%以上，说明模型的拟合效果好、精确度高，可以对山东省卫生费用进行预测。2020~2030年山东省卫生总费用及其占GDP比重总体呈上升趋势，医疗卫生水平不断提高，今后山东省不仅进一步加大卫生投入，也应尽量做到卫生总费用的投入与国民经济发展水平相适应，满足新时代人民对医疗卫生资源的需求。
Based on the data related to total health costs in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2019, the current situation of total health costs in Shandong Province was analyzed, and the GM(1,1) model was used to predict the change trend of total health costs in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2030. The data show that the accuracy of the model has reached more than 95%, indicating that the model has good fitting effect and high accuracy, which can predict the health cost in Shandong Province. From 2020 to 2030, the total health cost and its proportion to GDP in Shandong province are on the rise, and the medical and health level is constantly improving. In the future, Shandong province should not only further increase the health investment, but also try to adapt the total health cost to the national economic development level, so as to meet the people’s needs for medical and health resources in the new era.