基于泰尔指数的城乡收入差距的分析与预测
Analysis and Forecast of Urban-Rural Income Gap Based on Theil Index

本文选取泰尔指数衡量我国的城乡收入差距，以1978~2018年的数据为基础，计算得到泰尔指数时间序列，建立ARIMA(1,1,0)模型，预测2019~2025年城乡收入差距泰尔指数，并将2019~2021年的预测值与实际值进行比较。结果表明，误差较小，预测效果较好。本文得出以下结论：中国城乡收入差距预计将在未来几年缩小，但趋势较为缓慢，这说明我国在平衡城乡收入的治理方面和相关政策的实施方面是有效的。
In this paper, Theil index is selected to measure the urban-rural income gap in China. Based on the data from 1978 to 2018, the time series of Theil index is calculated and the ARIMA(1,1,0) model is established to predict Theil index from 2019 to 2025, and the predicted value from 2019 to 2021 is compared with the actual value. The results show that the error is small and the prediction effect is good. This paper draws the following conclusions: The urban-rural income gap in China is expected to narrow in the next few years, but the trend is relatively slow, which indicates that China is effective in the governance of urban-rural income balance and the implementation of relevant policies.