近年来，我国自然灾害频发，特别是地震、洪涝、干旱等较大灾害多次发生，对当地的公共安全构成严重威胁。此外，我国局部山区地质环境复杂多样，气候变化较大，考虑降雨条件激发地质灾害的动态耦合作用，本文以动态风险评价技术为指导，构建地质灾害动态风险预警模型，建立原型系统，实现区域层面的地质灾害动态风险评价与应急预警，为针对性地开展应急防灾提供可行的技术支持。与此同时，地质灾害综合防治相关的调查评价、机理研究和监测预警是不容忽视的重要工作，为地质灾害应急体系的重要环节，也是指导科学防灾的关键阶段性过程。在探索降雨激发滑坡、泥石流的作用机制及灾变效应的基础上，深入开展系统性工程处置和监测预警等防灾对策研究。
In recent years, natural disasters in China have occurred frequently, especially large disasters such as earthquakes, floods and droughts, which have posed a serious threat to local public safety. In addition, the geological environment of local mountainous areas in China is complex and diverse, and climate change is large. Considering the dynamic coupling effect of rainfall conditions to stimulate geological disasters, this paper takes dynamic risk assessment technology as the guide, constructs a dynamic risk early warning model of geological disasters, establishes a prototype system, realizes dynamic risk assessment and emergency early warning of geological disasters at the regional level, and provides feasible technical support for targeted emergency disaster pre-vention. At the same time, the investigation and evaluation, mechanism research and monitoring and early warning related to the comprehensive prevention and control of geological disasters are important tasks that cannot be ignored, an important link in the emergency response system for geological disasters, and a key stage process to guide scientific disaster prevention. On the basis of exploring the mechanism and catastrophic effect of rainfall to stimulate landslides and mudslides, we will carry out in-depth research on disaster prevention countermeasures such as systematic engineering disposal, monitoring and early warning.
Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Hervás, J., Jaedicke, C., et al. (2012) Statistical Modelling of Europe-Wide Landslide Susceptibility Using Limited Landslide In-ventory Data. Landslides, 9, 357-369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0299-z
