文字概率对自我–他人风险感知的影响
The Effect of Word Probability on Self-Other Risk Perception

目的：探讨文字概率对自我–他人风险感知的影响。方法：采用2 (结果效价：积极、消极) × 2 (对象：自我、他人) × 2 (风险概率：高概率、低概率) × 2 (领域：经济、健康)的混合实验设计，其中对象和结果效价为被试间因素，领域和风险概率为被试内因素。本研究基于实验设计编制调查问卷，对385名大学生被试进行调查。结果：健康领域消极风险结果发生在自我身上的概率估计显著低于他人(P = 0.015)，而积极风险结果发生在自我身上的概率估计显著高于他人(P = 0.012)，对经济领域消极和积极风险结果发生概率的估计没有显著的自我–他人差异(P均 > 0.05)；健康和经济领域低概率积极风险结果和高概率消极风险结果的自我可控性评定显著(P_{健康领域均} < 0.05)或边缘显著(P_{经济低概率–积极} = 0.068, P_{经济高概率–消极} = 0.089)高于他人；积极风险结果发生的概率评定与风险结果可控性存在正相关(r = 0.227~0.292, P均 < 0.05)；而消极风险结果发生的概率判断与可控性有负相关(r = ？0.204~？0.310, P均 < 0.05)。结论：相对于他人而言，文字风险概率对自我风险感知的影响较小，人们知觉到自己对风险结果有更高的可控性，而且人们对健康领域和经济领域的风险感知不同，因而提高风险预防行为要根据不同的领域从多方面来提高人们的风险感知。
Objective: To explore the effect of word probability on self-others risk perception. Methods: A mixed experimental design of 2 (outcome valence: positive, negative) × 2 (object: self, others) × 2 (risk probability: high probability, low probability) × 2 (field: economy, medical treatment) was adopted. Based on the experimental design, a risk situation questionnaire was developed to investigate 385 college students. Results: The probability of negative risk outcomes happening on self in the health field was significantly lower than others (P = 0.015), while the probability of positive risk outcomes happening on self was significantly higher than others (P = 0.012). There were no significant self-others differences in the estimation of the probability of risk outcomes in the economic field (Ps > 0.05). The controllability of self on low probability positive risk results and high probability negative risk results in health and the economic field was significant (Ps_{health domain} < 0.05) or marginally significant (P_{low probability-positive} = 0.068, P_{high probability-negative} = 0.089) higher than others. In some conditions, the probability of positive risk result occurrence was positively correlated with the controllability (r = 0.227~0.292, Ps < 0.05), while the probability of negative risk result was negatively correlated with controllability (r = ？0.204~？0.310, Ps < 0.05). Conclusion: Compared with others, word probability has less effect on risk perception of self, and people have different risk perceptions in the health and economic field. People perceived a higher sense of control over risk outcomes. Therefore, we should improve people’s risk perception from various aspects according to different fields to improve people’s prevention behavior.