基于适应性Lasso + GM (1, 1)模型的湖南物流业预测
Forecast of Hunan Logistics Industry Based on Adaptive Lasso + GM (1, 1) Model

物流业作为一个新兴产业，既可以促进各地区间的贸易往来，也可以推动该地区的经济增长，因而对物流业进行定量分析及预测未来的发展是非常有价值的。在文章中，使用湖南省2006~2019年物流业产值来分析湖南的物流业的情况；首先用适应性Lasso模型筛选出影响湖南省物流业发展较大的因素，然后用灰色模型预测湖南省物流业未来几年的发展，故而实现对湖南省物流业定量的分析。利用适应性Lasso + GM (1, 1)对湖南省的物流业产值进行定量分析和预测，并对结果进行分析，以期对湖南省物流业决策和战略作出参考。
As a new industry, the logistics industry can not only promote the trade between different regions, but also promote the economic growth of the region. Therefore, it is very valuable to make quantitative analysis and forecast the future development of logistics industry. In this paper, the output value of logistics industry in Hunan Province from 2006 to 2019 is used to analyze the situation of logistics industry in Hunan Province, then, we use the grey model to forecast the development of logistics industry in Hunan Province in the next few years, so we realize the quantitative analysis of logistics industry in Hunan Province. Lasso + GM (1, 1) is used to forecast the output value of logistics industry in Hunan Province, and the result is analyzed to make reference to the decision and strategy of logistics industry in Hunan Province.