基于ARIMA模型的云南省短期CPI预测
The Short-Term CPI Forecast of Yunnan Province Based on ARIMA Model

居民消费价格指数(CPI)是反映居民生活中消费品和服务价格变动情况的宏观经济指标。本文选取云南省2010年1月至2021年7月的月度CPI数据建立模型，对云南省未来12个月的CPI进行预测，并提出相关建议ARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0)₁₂，为云南省政府有关部门制定政策提供支持。
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a macroeconomic indicator that reflects the changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the lives of residents. This paper selects the monthly CPI data of Yunnan Province from January 2010 to July 2021 to establish ARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0)₁₂ model, predicts the CPI of Yunnan Province in the next 12 months, and puts forward relevant suggestions to provide support for relevant departments of the Yunnan Provincial Government to formulate policies.