华庆A油田高含水期合理注采比的确定
Determination of Reasonable Injection-Production Ratio during High Water Cut Period in Huaqing A Oilfield

注采比包括累积注采比和阶段注采比，注采比受含水率、地层压力、产液量和注水量等多因素影响。合理注采比是油田保持较高采收率的重要保障，所以对注采比的研究有着十分重大的意义。国内外油藏工程学者总结出，累积注采比的确定方法主要有矿场统计、水驱特征曲线、物质平衡和Logistic模型，前者主要靠油田动态资料和借鉴同类油藏开发经验确定，后三者适用于中–高含水油藏，各自有限制条件。文章以华庆A油田为例，主要对阶段注采比进行研究，通过建立多元回归模型，运用SPSS和python编程求解多项式的系数，并对模型进行验证，验证结果符合实际生产。两种方法各有优缺点：SPSS多元回归R²较小，精度较低，但满足长时间预测；python多元回归R²接近于1，精度高，但只符合短时间预测。建立多元回归模型为未来各类油藏确定合理注采比提供很好的理论依据，建议广泛采用。
Injection-production ratio includes cumulative injection-production ratio and stage injection- production ratio. Injection-production ratio is affected by water cut, formation pressure, liquid production and water injection volume. Reasonable injection-production ratio is an important guarantee to maintain high oil recovery, so it is of great significance to study injection-production ratio. Reservoir engineering scholars at home and abroad have concluded that the methods to determine cumulative injection-production ratio mainly include field statistics, water drive characteristic curve, material balance and Logistic model. The former is determined mainly by oilfield dynamic data and by referring to the development experience of similar reservoirs, while the latter three are suitable for medium-high water-cut reservoirs with their own restrictions. Taking Huaqing A oilfield as an example, this paper mainly studies the stage injection-production ratio, establishes multiple regression model, uses SPSS and Python programming to solve polynomial coefficients, and verifies the model, and verifies the results in line with the actual production. The two methods have their own advantages and disadvantages: SPSS multiple regression R² is small and the accuracy is low, but it can meet the long-term prediction; Python multiple regression R² is close to 1, with high accuracy, but only for short time predictions. The establishment of multiple regression model provides a good theoretical basis for determining reasonable injection-production ratio of various reservoirs in the future.