基于GM(1,1)模型的上海市婴幼儿死亡率预测分析
Prediction of Infant Mortality Rate in Shanghai Based on GM(1,1) Model

目的：分析上海市“十四五”时期上海市婴幼儿的健康水平，对上海市的婴幼儿死亡率展开预测，为促进上海市妇幼保健工作，提高健康水平提供参考。方法：通过选取2009~2018年间上海市婴儿死亡率、新生儿死亡率数据，运用Excle2010软件建立GM(1,1)模型，对2019~2025年上海市婴儿死亡率、新生儿死亡率，展开预测。结果：上海市婴幼儿死亡率呈现逐年下降趋势，表明上海市医疗保障水平逐步提高，居民健康得到有效保障，符合《“健康上海2030”规划纲要》的目标要求。结论：“十四五”时期上海市仍需加大对儿童健康的关注，切实保障儿童健康，把婴儿死亡率、新生儿死亡率降到更低的水平。
Objective: To analyze the health level of infants and children in Shanghai during the “14th Five-year Plan” period, and to predict the mortality rate of infants and children in Shanghai, so as to provide reference for promoting maternal and child health care in Shanghai and improving health level. Methods: By selecting the data of infant mortality and neonatal mortality in Shanghai from 2009 to 2018, Excle2010 software was used to establish GM(1,1) model, and to predict the infant mortality and neonatal mortality in Shanghai from 2019 to 2025. Results: The infant mortality rate in Shanghai showed a decreasing trend year by year, indicating that the level of medical security in Shanghai was gradually improved, the health of residents was effectively guaranteed, and it was in line with the goals and requirements of “Healthy China 2030” plan. Conclusion: During the 14th Five-year Plan period, Shanghai should pay more attention to children’s health, guarantee children’s health, and reduce infant mortality and neonatal mortality to a lower level.