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气候变化及水利工程综合影响下的三峡水库超标准设计洪水
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Abstract:
采用全球气候模式嵌套变网格模式进行动力降尺度预估三峡水库以上各分区降水量，基于多输入单输出模型计算三峡水库受气候变化和水利工程综合影响下的超标准设计洪水。研究发现：气候变化情景下长江上游降水强度增加，导致三峡水库设计洪水增加，长江上游干支流大型水库群的调蓄对三峡水库设计洪水有削减作用，梯级水库群的调蓄影响要显著高于气候变化影响。三峡水库受气候变化和水利工程综合影响的千年一遇设计洪峰流量和30 d洪量分别为87,323 m3/s和1398.9亿m3，相比设计值分别削减了11.6%和12.0%。
The dynamic downscaling method was adopted to simulate the future precipitation intensity variation of different sub-basins in the upper Yangtze River under climate change scenario. Based on the predicted precipitation, the hyper standard design flood of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) under the influence of climate change and hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Results reveal that the future design flood of TGR will increase under climate change scenario and decrease by the regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs. The impact of upstream reservoir regulation is greater than that of climate change scenario. 1000-year design flood peak and 30 d volumes are 87,323 m3/s and 139.9 billion m3, and decrease by 11.6% and 12% respectively.
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