There is an increasing awareness that the climate is changing and its changing impact has been significant on agricultural produce. This change is posing a major threat to agricultural development in Nigeria. Cocoa cultivation is one of the major cash crops in Ondo state and also a major agricultural produce which contributes significantly to employment generation and foreign exchange in the country. It has been observed that the production of cocoa over the years has been marked with fluctuations which could be attributed to the change in climate over the years. The objectives of this study include: examining the variation in the trend of cocoa production; and assessing the effects of climate variability on cocoa production for the year under review. This study made use of secondary data which included data on climatic variables (mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall and mean annual humidity) and cocoa output from 1976-2020. This study employed mainly inferential statistics for data analysis—trend analysis, correlation and regression. Trend analysis was used to examine climatic variables and cocoa production. The correlation analysis was used to show the relationship between the climatic variables and the cocoa yield. Also, regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of the climatic variables on cocoa production. Trend analysis reveals fluctuations in climatic variables and cocoa output over the years of study. Correlation analysis shows an inverse relationship between rainfall and cocoa output while regression analysis shows that humidity and temperature are expected to increase cocoa output. For a sustainable cocoa production, it is recommended that both governmental and non-governmental organizations should employ more extension agents to guide and enlighten cocoa farmers on climate change, its effects and the appropriate coping strategies.
References
[1]
Adejuwon, J. O., & Odekunle, T. O. (2006). Variability and Severity of Little Dry Season in South Western Nigeria. Journal of Climate, 19, 483-493. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3642.1
[2]
Adejuwon, S. A. (2004). Impact of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Crop Yield in Nigeria. Contributed paper to Stakeholders Workshop on Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC): 2-8.
[3]
Bolaji-Olatunji, K. A., Olufolaju, A. D., & Awe, F. (2010). Climate Change, Adoption and Sustainability Natural Resources Management in Nigeria. In J. A. Akinlade, A. B. Ogunwale, & V. O. Asaolu (Eds.), Proceedings of the 44th Annual Conference of Agricultural Society of Nigeria (ASN) (pp. 1449-1451). Agricultural Society of Nigeria.
[4]
Erelu, O. O. (2008). Cocoa for Health and Wealth. A Paper Presented in a Fourth Cocoa Day Celebration in Osun State, Nigeriabetween, 22nd-24th April 2008, 1-12.
[5]
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2003). FAOSTAT. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home
[6]
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press.
[7]
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, P. J. van der Lindel, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Summary for Policy Makers (Vol. 14, pp. 369-383) Cambridge University Press.
[8]
Jonathan, B. E., Gideon, A. U., & Julius, A. (2009). An Assessment of Water Supply Potential for Crop Production: Comparative Study of River Basins Under the Jurisdiction of Two River Basin Development Authority Areas Located in Different Ecological Zones of Nigeria. Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science, 7, 1.
[9]
Knorr, W. (2009) Is the Airborne Fraction of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Increasing? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, Article ID: L21710. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040613
[10]
Matsui, T., & Pielke Sr., R. A. (2006). Measurement-Based Estimation of the Spatial Gradient of Aerosol Radiative Forcing. Geophysical Research Letter, 33, Article ID: L11813. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025974
[11]
Medugu, N. I. (2009). Nigeria: The Effects of Climate Change in Nigeria. http://allafrica.com/stories/200910010424.html
[12]
Nigeria Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST) (2003). Climate Change in Nigeria. A Communication Guide for Reporters and Educators (pp. 5-16). Nigeria Environmental Study/Action Team.
Obatolu, C. R., Fashina, A. B., & Olaiya, A. O. (2003). Effects of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Nigeria. Proceeding of African Crop Science Conference Lagos, Nigeria (pp. 957-959).
[15]
Odjugo, P. (2010). General Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria. Journal of Human Ecology, 29, 47-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2010.11906248
[16]
Oyedele, J. O. (2007). Enhancing the sustainability of cocoa growing in Nigeria. In A. Bamidele, A. S. Bamire, K. Ayodeji, & F. Oluwole (Eds.), 2007 ICCO roundtable congress on sustainable World cocoa Economy at Accra, Ghana, 3rd-6th October 2007, ResearchGate.
[17]
Pouliotte, J., Smit, B., & Westerhoff, L. (2009). Adaptation and Development: Livelihood and Climate Change in Subarnadad, Bangladesh. Climate Change and Development, 1, 31-46. https://doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2009.0001
[18]
Tanner, T., & Mitchell, T. (2008). Entrenchment or Enhancement: Could Climate Change Adaptation Help to Reduce Chronic Poverty? Institute of Development Studies Bulletin, 39, 6-15. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2008.tb00471.x
[19]
Wilcox, M. D., & Abbott, P. C. (2004). Market Power and Structural Adjustment: The Case of West African Cocoa Market Liberalization. In EconsPapers, American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings (pp. 1-4). https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/20084/files/sp04wi05.pdf
