The
spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May (MAM) 2020
rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to
December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February,
2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the
issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National
Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Reanalysis 1 datasets of u (zonal)and v (meridional)winds, sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable
water and ocean net flux wereanalyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania
Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall records, maximum and minimum temperatures. Moreover, TMA
and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Center (ICPAC). MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports
were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calculated into monthly
and seasonal averages. As for observed data, long-term monthly and MAM percentage changes were
calculated. Besides, the correlation between rainfall anomalies with an area-
References
[1]
Nicholson, S.E. (2016) An Analysis of Recent Rainfall Conditions in Eastern Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 526-532. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4358
[2]
Anande, D. and Luhunga, P. (2019) Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of the December 2011 Flood Event in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 9, 421-437. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2019.93029
[3]
Chang’a, L.B., Kijazi, A.L., Mafuru, K.B., Nying’uro, P.A., Ssemujju, M., Deus, B., Kondowe, A.L., Yonah, I.B., Ngwali, M., Kisama, S.Y., Aimable, G., Sebaziga, J.N. and Mukamana, B. (2020) Understanding the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Extreme Rainfall Events in March-May 2017 to 2020 in East Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 10, 553-572. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2020.104029
[4]
Kimani, M.W., Hoedjes, J.C.B. and Su, Z.B. (2019) Assessment of Moisture Distribution Influence on Rainfall Variability during Different Phases of IOD over East Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere. Under Review.
[5]
Kabanda, T.A. and Jury, M.R. (1999) Inter-Annual Variability of Short Rains over Northern Tanzania. Climate Research, 13, 231-241. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr013231
[6]
Mpeta, E.J. (2002) Mechanisms of Inter-Annual Rainfall Variability over Tropical Highlands of Africa and Its Predictability Potential. Thesis Submitted to the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Faculty of Science, University of Zululand. http://www.meteo.go.tz/weather_forecasts/seasonal-weather-forecast
[7]
Kijazi, A.L. and Reason, C.J. (2005) Relationships between Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability of Coastal Tanzania and ENSO. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 82, 153-176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0129-0
[8]
Kai, K.H. (2018) Impacts of Southwestern Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Storms on the Rainfall Pattern and Vegetation Productivity over Tanzania. Thesis Submitted to the Institute of Marine Sciences of the University of Dar Es Salaam, Dar Es Salaam, 297.
[9]
Kai, K.H., Kijazi, A.L. and Osima, S.E. (2020) An Assessment of the Seasonal Rainfall and Its Societal Implications in Zanzibar Islands during the Season of October to December, 2019. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 10, 509-529. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2020.104026
[10]
Li, C.J., Chai, Y.Q., Yang, L.S. and Li, H.R. (2016) Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Flood Disasters and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Africa. Natural Hazards, 82, 721-731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8
[11]
Kai, K.H., Osima, S.E., Kijazi, A.L., Ngwali, M.K. and Hamad, A.O. (2021) Assessment of the Off-Season Rainfall of January to February 2020 and Its Socio Economic Implications in Tanzania: A Case Study of the Northern Coast of Tanzania. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research, 4, 51-69. https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v4i2.3135
[12]
TMA (Tanzania Meteorological Authority) (2019) The October to December (OND) Seasonal Forecast for Tanzania. http://www.meteo.go.tz/weather_forecasts/seasonal-weather-forecast
[13]
Chang’a, L.B., Kijazi, A.L., Mafuru, K.B., Kondowe, A.L., Osima, S.E., Mtongori, H.I., Ng’ongolo, H.K., Juma, O.H. and Michael, E. (2020) Assessment of the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events in October 2019 over the East Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 10, 319-338. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2020.103018
[14]
ICPAC (2019) Statement from the Fifty Third Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (ghacof53) for October to December, 2019 Rainfall Season: 26-28 August 2019; Hyatt Hotel, Dar es salaam, Tanzania.
[15]
Mapande, A.T. and Reason, C.J.C. (2005) Links between Rainfall Variability on Intra-Seasonal and Inter-Annual Scales over Western Tanzania and Regional Circulation and SST Patterns. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 89, 215-234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0130-2
[16]
ICPAC (2020) Statement from the 54th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (ghacof54) for March to May 2020 Rainfall Season: 27-29 January 2020. https://gallery.mailchimp.com/c0c3fc97a16d77359aa6419af/files/0ae729b6-8fdb-4501-afd9-20ad43d07bb0/GHACOF54_Statement_2020.pdf?utm_source=ICPAC_NEWSLETTER&utm_campaign=b5a66119b6EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_25_06_47_COPY_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0ea0a0abaf-b5a66119b6-76801321
[17]
TMA (2020) The March to May, 2020 (MAM 2020) Seasonal Forecast for Tanzania.
[18]
Mafuru, K.B. and Guirong, T. (2018) Assessing Prone Areas to Heavy Rainfall and the Impaction of the Upper Warm Temperature Anomaly during March–May Rainfall Season in Tanzania. Advances in Meteorology, 2018, Article ID: 8353296. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/8353296
[19]
Kai, K.H., Ngwali, M.K. and Faki, M.M. (2021) Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Fantala to Tanzania Coastal Line: Case Study of Zanzibar. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 11, 245-266. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2021.112015
[20]
RGoZ (2007) An Assessment of Rainwater Harvesting Potential in Zanzibar. http://apps.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/O1E_Assessment_of_Rainwater_harvesting_Potential_in_Zanzibar.pdf
[21]
Josey, S., Kent, E. and Taylor, P. (1999) New Insights into the Ocean Heat Budget Closure Problem from Analysis of the SOC Air-Sea Flux Climatology. Journal of Climate, 12, 2856-2880. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3C2856:NIITOH%3E2.0.CO;2
[22]
Wilks, D.S. (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd Edition, International Geophysics Series, Vol. 59, Academic Press, 464 p.
[23]
Wilks, D.S. (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press.
[24]
Rahul, S. and Gnanaseelan, C. (2013) Net Heat Flux over the Indian Ocean: Trends, Driving Mechanisms, and Uncertainties. IEEE Geosciences and Remote Sensing Letters, 10, 776-780. https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2012.2223194
[25]
TMA (2020-2021) Statement on the Status of Tanzania Climate in 2020. https://www.meteo.go.tz/uploads/publications/sw1626330912-TMA%20BOOK%202020%20-2021%20(3).pdf
[26]
Zorita, E. and Tilya, F.F. (2002) Rainfall Variability in Northern Tanzania in the March-May Season (Long Rains) and Its Links to Large-Scale Climate Forcing. Climate Research, 20, 31-40. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr020031
[27]
Kijazi, A.L. and Reason, C.J.C. (2012) Intra-Seasonal Variability over the Northeastern Highlands of Tanzania. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 874-887. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2315
[28]
Goddard, L. and Graham, N.E. (1999) Importance of the Indian Ocean for Simulating Rainfall Anomalies over Eastern and Southern Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 104, 19099-19116. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900326
[29]
Mchugh, M.J. (2004) Near-Surface Zonal Flow and East African Precipitation Receipt during Austral Summer. Journal of Climate, 17, 4070-4079. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C4070:NZFAEA%3E2.0.CO;2
[30]
Yang, W., Seager, R., Cane, M.A. and Lyon, B. (2015) The Annual Cycle of East Africa Precipitation. Journal of Climatology, 28, 2385-2400. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00484.1
[31]
Camberlin, P. and Philippon, N. (2002) The East African March-May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968-97 Period. Journal of Climate, 15, 1002-1019. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C1002:TEAMMR%3E2.0.CO;2
[32]
Camberlin, P. and Okoola, R.E. (2003) The Onset and Cessation of the “Long Rains” in Eastern Africa and Their Interannual Variability. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 75, 43-54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-002-0721-5
[33]
Shi, F., Hao, Z. and Shao, Q. (2014) The Analysis of Water Vapor Budget and Its Future Change in the Yellow-Huai-Hai Region of China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 10702-10719. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021431
[34]
Xie, S., Zhang, Y., Giangrande, S.E., Jensen, M.P., McCoy, R. and Zhang, M. (2014) Interactions between Cumulus Convection and Its Environment as Revealed by the MC3E Sounding Array. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 11784-11808. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022011
[35]
Makarau, A. (1994) Intra-Seasonal Oscillatory Modes of the Southern Africa Summer Circulation. PhD Thesis, University of Cape Town, University of Cape Town.