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Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the Performance of March to May 2020 Long Rains and Its Socio-Economic Implications in Northern Coast of Tanzania

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2021.114045, PP. 767-796

Keywords: March to May 2020 Rainfall Assessment, Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies (SSTA) Assessments, Precipitable Water (PRW) and Ocean Net Flux, Relative Humidity

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Abstract:

The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May (MAM) 2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February, 2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Reanalysis 1 datasets of u (zonal) and v (meridional) winds, sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable water and ocean net flux were analyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall records, maximum and minimum temperatures. Moreover, TMA and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Center (ICPAC). MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calculated into monthly and seasonal averages. As for observed data, long-term monthly and MAM percentage changes were calculated. Besides, the correlation between rainfall anomalies with an area-

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