Foreign
debt is considered to be a source of income for countries. If foreign debt is
managed well and directed towards productive projects, then it might enhance
the countries’ economic growth. However, foreign debt has many costs that might
cause deterioration in the economy. This study aims to investigate how total
foreign debt impacts the economic growth of Egypt for a time period of 39 years
(1980-2018). In the methodology, descriptive statistics, unit root tests,
Johansen co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are used. The
results show that total foreign debt exerts a significant long run negative
impact on the Egyptian economic growth, while the results are insignificant in
the short run.
References
[1]
Abdou, D. M., & Zaazou Z. (2018). Impact of the Socio-Economic Situation Post the Egyp-tian Revolution (2011). International Journal of Service Science, Management and Engi-neering, 5, 65-74.
[2]
Abiad, M. A., & Ostry, M. J. D. (2005). Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries. International Monetary Fund.
[3]
Ahmad, A., Ahmad, N., & Ali, S. (2013). Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Pakistan (1975-2011). Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 3, 740-746.
[4]
Akinwale, S. O. (2018). Bank Lending Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 7, 111-122. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v7-i3/4440
[5]
Al Kharusi, S., & Ada, M. (2018). External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Economy. Journal of Economic Integration, 33, 1141-1157. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.1.1141
[6]
Alissa, S. (2007). The Political Economy of Reform in Egypt: Understanding the Role of In-stitutions. Carnegie Papers, No. 5, 1-27.
[7]
Awe, A. A., & Olawumi, O. R. (2012). Determinant of Income Distribution in the Nigerian Economy: 1997-2005. International Business and Management, 15, 126-137.
[8]
Babu, J. O., Kiprop, S., Kalio, A. M., & Gisore, M. (2015). Effect of Domestic Debt on Economic Growth in the East African Community. American Journal of Research Com-munication, 3, 73-95.
[9]
Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 5326. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5326
[10]
Berument, H., Inamlik, A., & Olgun, H. (2008). Inflation and Growth: Positive or Negative Relationship? Journal of Applied Sciences, 8, 192-204. https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2008.192.204
[11]
Bezemer, D., Grydaki, M., & Zhang, L. (2014). Is Financial Development Bad for Growth? University of Groningen.
[12]
Binh, P. T. (2013). Unit Root Tests, Cointegration, ECM, VECM, and Causality Models. Topics in Time Series Econometrics, 1-157.
[13]
Borensztein, E. (1990). Debt Overhang, Credit Rationing and Investment. Journal of Devel-opment Economics, 32, 315-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(90)90041-9
[14]
Boyd, J. H., & Champ, B. A. (2006). Inflation, Banking, and Economic Growth (pp. 1-4). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
[15]
Bozkurt, C. (2014). Money, Inflation and Growth Relationship: The Turkish Case. Interna-tional Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 4, 309-322.
[16]
Brkić, M. (2021). Costs and Benefits of Government Borrowing in Foreign Currency: Is It A Major Source of Risk for EU Member States Outside the Euro? Public Sector Economics, 45, 63-91. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.45.1.2
[17]
Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) (2003). Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Annual Report. https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/AnnualReport.aspx
[18]
Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) (2018). External Position of the Egyptian Economy. FY 2017/2018, 66. https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/ExternalPosition.aspx
[19]
Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) (2019). External Position of the Egyptian Economy. FY 2018/2019, 66. https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/EconomicResearch/Publications/Pages/ExternalPosition.aspx
[20]
Claessens, S., Detragiache, E., Kanbur, R., & Wickham, P. (1996). Analytical Aspects of the Debt Problems of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. World Bank Policy Research Work-ing Paper Series, No. 1618.
[21]
Cohen, D. (1995). Large External Debt and (Slow) Large External Debt and (Slow) Domestic Growth a Theoretical Analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1141-1163. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(94)00822-Y
[22]
Conner, B., & Johnson, E. (2017). Descriptive Statistics. American Nurse Today, 12, 52-55.
[23]
Crockett, A. D. (1995). Financial Fragility: Sources, Prevention, and Treatment. In H. A. Be-nink (Eds), Coping with Financial Fragility and Systemic Risk (pp. 267-277). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2373-1_22
[24]
Cuestas, J. C., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Staehr, K. (2014). Government Debt Dynamics and the Global Financial Crisis: Has Anything Changed in the EA12? Economics Letters, 124, 64-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.04.014
[25]
Dao, A. (2014). Trade Openness and Economic Growth. Mark A. Israel ‘91 Endowed Sum-mer Research Fund in Economics, 2, 1-29.
[26]
De Gregorio, J., & Guidotti, P. (1995). Financial Development and Economic Growth. World Development, 23, 433-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)00132-I
[27]
Di Giovanni, J., & Shambaugh, J. (2008). The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime. Journal of International Economics, 74, 341-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.09.002
[28]
Easterly, W. (2002). How Did Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Become Heavily Indebted? Reviewing Two Decades of Debt Relief. World Development, 30, 1677-1696. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00073-6
[29]
Egbetunde, T., & Akinlo, A. (2015). Financial Globalization and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests. African Development Re-view, 27, 187-198. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12140
[30]
Favaro, E., Garrido, L., & Stucka, T. (2009). The Global Crisis and the Egyptian Economy, 2. Macro Policy Notes, MENA Region, World Bank.
[31]
Feldstein, M. S. (1986). Budget Deficits, Tax Rules and Real Interest Rates. NBER Working Paper No. 1970. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1970
[32]
Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. NBER Working Paper, No. 4565. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4565
[33]
Forgha, N., Mbella, M., & Ngangnchi, F. (2014). External Debt, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Cameroon—A System Estimation Approach. Journal of Economic Bibliography, 1, 3-16.
[34]
Gabriel, M., & Ogiemudia, A. O. (2013). Foreign Debt Management and the Development of Nigeria Economy. Review of Economics & Finance, 3, 99-109.
[35]
Guseh, S., & Oritsejafor, E. (2007). Government Size, Political Freedom and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1960-2000. Journal of Third World Studies, 24, 139-165.
[36]
Hanafy, S. (2015). Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt—Descriptive Insights from a Novel Panel Dataset at the Governorate Level. MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, No. 12-2015, Philipps-Universität Marburg.
[37]
Hatmanu, M., Cautisanu, C., & Ifrim, M. (2020). The Impact of Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and European Business Climate on Economic Growth in Romania: An ARDL Approach with Structural Breaks. Sustainability, 12, 2798. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072798
[38]
Hye, Q. (2011). Financial Development Index and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from India. The Journal of Risk Finance, 12, 98-111. https://doi.org/10.1108/15265941111112820
[39]
Hye, Q., & Islam, F. (2013). Does Financial Development hamper Economic Growth: Em-pirical Evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14, 558-582. https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.654813
[40]
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dy-namics and Control, 12, 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
[41]
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198774508.001.0001
[42]
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
[43]
Karahan, Ö. (2020). Influence of Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth in the Turkish Economy. Financial Assets and Investing, 11, 21-34. https://doi.org/10.5817/FAI2020-1-2
[44]
Kasidi, F., & Mwakanemela, K. (2013). Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3, 363-380. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v3-i5/1198
[45]
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues. World Bank Working Paper.
[46]
Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang. Journal of Development Economics, 29, 253-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90044-2
[47]
Law, S., & Singh, N. (2014). Does Too Much Finance Harm Economic Growth? Journal of Banking and Finance, 41, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020
[48]
Lin, S., & Sosin, K. (2001). Foreign Debt and Economic Growth. Economics of Transition, 9, 635-655. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0351.00092
[49]
Mbah, S. A., Agu, O. C., & Umunna, G. (2016). Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach. Journal of Economics and Sus-tainable Development, 7, 16-26.
[50]
Mohieldin, M., Hussein, K., & Rostom, A. (2019). On Financial Development and Economic Growth in Egypt. Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, 1, 70-86. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHASS-08-2019-0027
[51]
Muhanji, S., & Ojah, K. (2011). Management and Sustainability of External Debt: A Focus on the Emerging Economies of Africa. Review of Development Finance, 1, 184-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2011.09.001
[52]
Neely, C., & Rapach, D. (2008). Real Interest Rate Persistence: Evidence and Implications. Economic Review: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper Series. https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2008.018
[53]
Obansa, S. A. J., Okoroafor, O. K. D., Aluko, O. O., & Millicent, E. (2013). Perceived Rela-tionship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1970-2010. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 1, 116-124. https://doi.org/10.11634/232907811301374
[54]
Ogunmuyiwa, M. S. (2011). Does External Debt Promote Economic Growth? Journal of Economic Theory, 3, 29-35.
[55]
Osuagwu, C., & Orbunde, E. (2015). The Impact of Foreign Debt on Developing Nations: A Case Study of Its Effects on Nigerian Economy. Journal of Educational Policy and Entre-preneurial Research, 2, 145-159.
[56]
Pattillo, C., Poirson H., & Ricci, L. (2002). External Debt and Growth. IMF Working Paper 02/69, 1-47. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849073.001
[57]
Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., Ricci, L., Kraay, A., & Rigobon, R. (2003). Through What Channels Does External Debt Affect Growth? In Brooking Trade Forum (pp. 229-277). Brookings Institution Press. https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2004.0013
[58]
Pegkas, P. (2018). The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience. Economies, 6, 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies6010010
[59]
Presbitero, A. F. (2012). Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries. The Euro-pean Journal of Development Research, 24, 606-626. https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2011.62
[60]
Quartey, P. (2010). Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana. Modern Economy, 1, 180-194. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2010.13021
[61]
Rais, S. I., & Anwar, T. (2012). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Se-ries Analysis from 1972 to 2010. Academic Research International, 2, 535-544.
[62]
Razzaque, M. A., Bidisha, S., & Khondker, B. (2017). Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: An Empirical Assessment for Bangladesh. Journal of South Asian Development, 12, 42-64. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973174117702712
[63]
Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. R., & Rogoff, K. S. (2012). Public Debt Overhangs: Ad-vanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26, 69-86. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.69
[64]
Rifaqat, A., & Usman, M. (2012). External Debt Accumulation and Its Impact on Economic Growth in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 51, 79-96. https://doi.org/10.30541/v51i4IIpp.79-96
[65]
Ritzer, G. (Ed.) (2007). The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology (Vol. 1479). Blackwell Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1111/b.9781405124331.2007.00001.x
[66]
Saylor, R., & Wheeler, N. (2017). Paying for War and Building States: The Coalitional Poli-tics of Debt Servicing and Tax Institutions. World Politics, 69, 366-408. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887116000319
[67]
Senadza, B., Fiagbe, A., & Quartey, P. (2018). The Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 11, 61-69.
[68]
Serieux, J., & Yiagadeesen, S. (2001). The Debt Service Burden and Growth: Evidence from Low Income Countries. The North-South Institute.
[69]
Shkolnyk, I., & Koilo, V. (2018). The Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Ukraine and Other Emerging Economies. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15, 387-400. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(1).2018.32
[70]
Siddique, A., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2016). The Impact of External Debt on Growth: Evidence from Highly Indebted Poor Countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38, 874-894. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.03.011
[71]
Smyth, D. J., & Hsing, Y. (1995). In Search of an Optimal Debt Ratio for Economic Growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 13, 51-59. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1995.tb00731.x
[72]
Švigir, M., & Miloš, J. (2017). Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth; Com-parative Experience of Italy and Austria. FIP-Financije i Pravo, 5, 91-101.
[73]
Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing a New Broad-Based Index of Financial Development. IMF Working Paper 16/5. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583709.001
[74]
Tchereni, B., Sekhampu, T. J., & Ndovi, R. F. (2013). The Impact of Foreign Debt on the Period 1990-2012. Economics & Sociology, 8, 246-257.
[75]
Todaro, P. M., & Smith, S. C. (2006). Economic Development (9th ed.). Pearson Education.
[76]
Turan, G., & Seni, D. (2014). The Effect of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: Albanian Case. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 3, 193-200. https://doi.org/10.5901/ajis.2014.v3n3p193
[77]
Vamvakidis, A. (2002). How Robust is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evi-dence. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 57-80. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013418610712
[78]
Wachtel, P. (2011). The Evolution of the Finance Growth Nexus. Comparative Economic Studies, 53, 475-488. https://doi.org/10.1057/ces.2011.16
[79]
Weiss, M. (2007). Iraq’s Debt Relief: Procedure and Potential Implications for International Debt Relief. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress.
[80]
Younus, S., & Chowdhury, M. I. (2006). An Analysis of Bangladesh’s Transition to Flexible Exchange Rate Regime. Working Paper Series: WP 0706, Bangladesh Bank.