贵州南部一次暴雨过程诊断分析
Diagnostic Analysis of a Rainstorm Process in Southern Guizhou

本文利用MICAPS资料分析了贵州2019年6月5~7日上空环流形势，结合TBB卫星云图资料，观察云团生成、发展与消散各个阶段的特征，检验比EC细网格对此次天气过程的预报能力。综合得出：受高空槽东移影响，槽前正涡度平流有利于低层上升运动，同时700 hpa上低涡中心延伸出东西两段，贵州北部和南部受低涡西段影响，850 hpa切变东移南压，地面受云南热低压影响，辐合线地面辐合线维持在省的西南部缓慢移动，导致夜间出现强降水。结合配料法分析各层的物理量，整层水汽条件较好，加上空间动力配置较好，热低压、短波槽、低空切变线、地面辐合线相互作用，导致此次贵州南部出现大暴雨，并伴有较强的短时强降水。检验EC作为大尺度预报对此次过程的预报能力，得出模式预报范围与实况较接近，量级偏小，南部暴雨、大暴雨漏报的结论。
Using MICAPS data, this paper analyzes the circulation situation over Guizhou from June 5 to 7, 2019, combined with TBB satellite cloud image data, observes the characteristics of each stage of cloud formation, development and dissipation, and tests the prediction ability of finer grid compar-ing to EC for this weather process. It is concluded that the positive vorticity advection in front of the trough is conducive to the upward movement of the lower layer under the influence of the eastward movement of the high-altitude trough. At the same time, the low vortex center extends from the east to the west at 700 hPa. The northern and southern Guizhou are affected by the western section of the low vortex, the shear at 850 hPa moves eastward and southward, the ground is affected by the thermal low pressure in Yunnan, and the convergence line maintains a slow movement in the southwest of the province, resulting in heavy precipitation at night. Combined with the analysis of the physical quantity of each layer, the water vapor condition of the whole layer is good, coupled with the good spatial dynamic configuration, and the interaction of thermal low pressure, short wave trough, low-level shear line and ground convergence line, resulting in the heavy rainstorm in Southern Guizhou, accompanied by strong short-term heavy precipitation. The prediction ability of EC as a large-scale forecast for this process is tested. It is concluded that the prediction range of the model is close to the actual situation, the magnitude is small, and the rainstorm and heavy rainstorm in the south are not reported.