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气候变化情景下杨房沟水电站未来设计洪水计算
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Abstract:
受气候变化和下垫面变化的影响，水文序列的一致性遭到破坏，传统基于水文序列一致性假设的水文频率计算方法已不再适用。针对变化环境下杨房沟水电站的非一致性设计洪水问题，采用ASD降尺度模型进行未来降水预测，基于贝叶斯模型加权平均法进行未来降水的不确定性分析，应用GAMLSS模型对洪水序列进行非一致性洪水频率分析，估算水电站未来设计洪水，为变化环境下的水电站防洪设计及防洪调度提供科学依据。
The stationary of hydrologic series has been undermined by climate change and underlyding surface change, and the traditional hydrologic frequency calculation method based on the hypothesis of hydro-logic series stationary is no longer applicable. In view of the problem of non-stationary design flood of Yangfanggou hydropower station in the changing environment, this study uses the ASD downscaling model to forecast future precipitation, and uncertainty analysis of the precipitation based on Bayesian model averaging. Then, the future design flood of the projection is estimated by the GAMLSS model, which will provide scientific basis for design flood and flood control operation of hydropower station under changing environment.
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