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乐昌峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制研究
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Abstract:
乐昌峡水库为季调节水库，汛限水位为144.5 m，汛期调度可使用的库容仅0.18亿m3，造成水库大量弃水。考虑气象水文预报信息及其来水起涨过程的不确定性，建立乐昌峡水库预报预泄调度和风险分析模型，推求6 h和12 h预报信息相对应的汛期运行水位动态控制上限，分别为145.7 m和147.5 m。实现乐昌峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制，多年平均可增发电量1190万kW？h，减小弃水量5410万m3，经济社会效益显著。
The Lechangxia reservoir is seasonally regulated and affected by the flood limit water level of 144.5 m, and the adjustable storage capacity is only 18 million m3 which wastes flood resources in flood season. Considering the meteorological and hydrological forecasting information and the inflow uncertainty of rising process, a pre-discharge scheme and risk analysis model was established. Based on 6 h and 12 h inflow forecasts, the dynamic control upper bounds of water level in flood season were 145.7 m and 147.5 m, respectively. Compared with the designed scheme, the dynamic control of operating water level scheme can generate 11.90 million kW？h more hydropower and reduce 54.1 million m3 discharged water annually, which has significantly social and economic benefits.
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