喀什地区夏季一场强降水天气过程成因分析
Analysis on the Cause of a Heavy Precipitation Weather Process in Summer in Kashi Area

本文利用高空、地面实时资料及数据预报产品资料、常规探测资料对喀什地区2017年8月19日20时至25日20时强降水天气过程进行分析，通过分析表明：此次天气过程的环流形势为东西夹攻形势，有利于造成喀什地区的大降水。此次全地区阶段性低温阴雨造成一定程度的农业损失。Ec降水预报模式对于降水落区能与实况基本一致，但对于大降水落区把握不准，预报量级与实况差异较大。
In this paper, the high altitude and ground real-time data, data forecast product material and conventional detection data were used to analyze the heavy precipitation weather process from 20 o’clock on August 19 to 20 o’clock on August 25, 2017 in Kashgar region. The analysis showed that the circulation situation of this weather process was the situation of east and west attack, which was beneficial to the heavy precipitation in Kashgar region. In the whole region, the periodic low temperature overcast rain caused a certain degree of agricultural losses. The Ec precipitation forecast model is basically consistent with the actual situation for the precipitation area, but it is not accurate for the heavy precipitation area, and the forecast magnitude is quite different from the actual situation.