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堵河流域径流变化趋势及特征分析
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Abstract:
研究堵河流域径流变化趋势及特征，指导气候变化和人类活动影响下的流域水资源规划配置与水力发电具有重要意义。采用累积距平法和Spearman法分析堵河流域1961~2017年的年径流变化趋势，采用Man-Kendall突变检验法分析年径流突变情况，并分析了径流的年内、年际分配状况。结果表明：① 堵河流域径流年内分配不均匀性较强，年际变化剧烈，1991年以来，“枯水”状况增加；② 年径流在1961~2017年期间趋势不明显，小幅增长未通过显著性检验；③ 年径流的突变年份为1991年。堵河流域径流的突变以及年内、年际不均匀性加剧是气候变化与人类活动影响下的体现。
The study on the runoff variation and characteristics of the Duhe River basin is of great significance to guide the planning and allocation of water resources and hydropower generation under the influence of climate change and human activities. Both the cumulative anomaly method and Spearman method were used to analyze the annual runoff change trend from 1961 to 2017, the Man-Kendall catastrophe test was used to analyze the annual runoff abrupt change, and the annual and inter-annual distribution of runoff are analyzed. The results show that: 1) The annual distribution of runoff is uneven and the inter-annual variation is violent. The “low water” situation has increased since 1991; 2) The trend of annual runoff is not obvious from 1961 to 2017, and the slight increase fails to pass the significance test; 3) The abrupt change of annual runoff is 1991. The abrupt change of runoff and the intensification of intra-annual and inter annual heterogeneity are the embodiment under the influence of climate change and human activities.
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