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基于模糊决策法的北极东北航线风险评估
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Abstract:
文章以中国冰上海上丝绸之路发展为背景，以北极东北航线的通航风险和海冰融化为重点，选取气温等气候因素，确定风险指标体系，采用模糊决策方法，建立起航道通航风险模糊综合评价模型，并对在海冰融化风险下的航道水深等地理因素，对航道主要海域存在自然环境风险进行评价。最后选取温度、海冰密度和风速作为因子变化的敏感度，来评价要素风险指标的影响。
Based on the development of China’s Maritime Silk Road and Arctic route, focusing on the navigation risk and sea ice melting of the Northeast Arctic route, the paper evaluates the navigation risk of the Arctic Northeast channel and the navigation risk employing the fuzzy decision-making method and selecting the climatic factors such as temperature and the geographical factors such as channel depth under the risk of sea ice melting, and evaluates the risk existing in the natural environment of the main section of the Arctic Northeast channel. On this basis, the contribution of each index factor to the comprehensive risk is discussed.
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