利用空气质量模型AERMOD的大气预测模块，建立了复杂地形高浓度SO2气体泄漏的风险扩散模型分析方法。以某重金属冶炼企业为例，设置50 m网格分辨率的30 km范围内的高浓度SO2瞬时扩散风险情景，进行真实情况下的全年的小时的最大贡献模拟分析，得出各网格在真实气象条件下的最大影响情况图，并将其与SLAB模型进行对比分析。结果表明，基于AERMOD的复杂地形模块的风险预测影响范围在高浓度区与SLAB模型接近，在低浓度区的部分区域小于SLAB模型。这说明基于AERMOD的复杂地形模块的风险预测在一定程度上可以较为真实的反应风险扩散模式。该方法为复杂地形风险扩散研究提供了科学依据。
A calculated methodology of risk diffusion model of air pollutants in complex terrain of AERMOD model was developed. The technology was used in enterprise which is smelting heavy metal. We set a high concentration SO2 diffusion risk scenario within 5 km of 50 m grid resolution, simulate and analyze the maximum hourly contribution of the whole year under the real situation, get the maximum impact map of each grid under the real weather conditions, and analyze the score with SLAB model. The results show that the influence range of risk prediction of complex terrain module based on AERMOD is close to that of SLAB model in high concentration area and smaller than that of SLAB model in low concentration area. This shows that the risk prediction of complex terrain module based on AERMOD can reflect the real risk diffusion model to a certain extent. This method provides a scientific basis for the study of risk diffusion of complex terrain.
