|
|
Finance 2021
2020~2021期间中国上市公司财务危机预警
|
Abstract:
本文是《中国企业财务危机预警模型研究》的继续，作者利用2020年中国A股市场上市企业的财务数据，检测到模型的准确率达到80%，再次证明了模型的有效性。随后，运用该模型，对2020年企业财务风险的变动状况进行了分析，发现疫情的确给大部分企业的财务状况带来了负面影响，并进而给出了不同行业企业发生财务危机的概率。最后，对2021年中国上市公司的财务风险进行了预测。
As a follow-up to the “Modeling of Corporate Financial Distress Alarm in China”, this article contin-ues to analyze the financial performance of China listed companies under the COVID-19 in the year 2020/2021. Firstly, the prediction accuracy of the model is tested by using the data of year 2020, and it reached 80%, which once again proves the efficacy of the modeling. Subsequently, by using the modeling methodology, the corporate financial distress alarms in 2020 are analyzed; it shows the epidemic has exerted hard impact on most listed companies, though being different across var-ious industry sectors. At last, the financial distress alarms of China listed companies in 2021 are further predicted.
| [1] | 任红, 张玉志, 楚义芳. 中国企业财务危机预警模型研究[J]. 金融, 2020, 10(4): 392-402.
https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2020.104040 |
| [2] | Altman, E.I. (1968) Financial Ratio, Discriminate Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23, 589-609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x |
| [3] | Altman, E.I. (1993) Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: A Complete Guide to Predicting & Avoiding Distress and Profiting from Bankruptcy. 2nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. |
| [4] | 周首华, 杨济华, 王平. 论财务危机的预警分析——F分数模式[J]. 会计研究, 1996(8): 8-11. |
| [5] | 陈静. 上市公司财务恶化预测模型的实证研究[J]. 会计研究, 1999(4): 31-38. |
| [6] | 吴世农, 卢贤义. 我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J]. 经济研究, 2001(6): 46-55. |
