The aim of the research was to assess the trend and
variations in rainfall and temperature in Papua New Guinea between 1956 and
2016 (60 years) and project the trends from 2017 to 2047 (30 years).
Meteorological data obtained from the World Bank Climate Database Headquarters
in Washington, United States, from 1956 to 2016 were used in the models. The
general linear model analysis was used to investigate the trend in both
rainfall and temperature and to predict the future trends. Over the period of
study period, 1956 to 2016, the study found that the climatic factors, rainfall
and temperature pattern in Papua New Guinea have been changing. It was found
that there is an increasing trend in rainfall and temperature. Projections
revealed a further increase in rainfall and temperature into the future.
Rainfall in Papua New Guinea has been increasing. The projection revealed that
rainfall was trending upward with a linear model equation: Rainfall = 0.0093x + 252.38. The increased trend in rainfall suggests that there is an increased
trend in evaporation and transpiration. For temperature, although it does not
come down to zero and to negative at nights or go up to 40°C or 50°C during the
day time as in other countries, the change is clear in the analysis made in the
study that there is an increasing trend. If nothing is done to combat the
current rate of climate change in the country, the increasing trend in rainfall
and temperature would continue. This calls for immediate actions as the issue
needs to be addressed in time. Therefore, it is recommended that the government
of Papua New Guinea consider incorporating climate change policies into their
development plans.
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