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基于改进的AHP和信息熵的路桥工程投标决策及风险评估
Bidding Decision and Risk Assessment of Road and Bridge Project Based on Improved AHP and Information Entropy

DOI: 10.12677/MSE.2021.102015, PP. 109-119

Keywords: 路桥工程，投标决策，风险因素，改进的模糊层次分析，信息熵，风险评估
Road and Bridge Engineering, Bidding Decision, Risk Factors, Improved Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Information Entropy, Risk Assessment

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Abstract:

针对路桥工程招投标阶段，项目风险评估是交通建筑企业进行投标决策的重要依据。结合交通行业建设市场的实际状况，分析影响路桥工程投标决策的风险因素，并形成投标风险评估指标体系。同时考虑到风险因素的多样性、关联性、不确定性以及动态性等特点，运用模糊数学原理，提出了一种基于改进的三标度模糊层次分析与信息熵相结合的风险评估方法，并用于计算风险因素的综合权重。将以往模糊评判中基于最大隶属度原则来确定风险等级归属改为评分机制，把综合权重转化为风险分数值，从而确定风险等级并指导投标决策。将该评估方法结合实例分析，结果表明：获取的综合权重方法具有较高的可行性和可靠性，能够较真实的反应投标阶段的风险水平。此方法可为建筑企业在实际路桥工程投标决策时提供科学合理的风险评估依据，具有一定的参考价值与指导意义。
For the bidding stage of road and bridge projects, project risk assessment is an important basis for traffic construction enterprises to make bidding decisions and choices. Combined with the actual situation of the construction market of the transportation industry, the risk factors affecting the bidding decision of road and bridge projects are analyzed, and the bidding risk evaluation index system is formed. At the same time, considering the diversity, relevance, uncertainty and dynamics of risk factors, using the principle of fuzzy mathematics, a risk assessment method based on improved three-scale fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and information entropy is proposed, and it is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of risk factors. The grade attribution of risk determined by the principle of maximum membership degree in the past fuzzy evaluation was changed to the scoring mechanism. The comprehensive weight is transformed into the score of the risk, so as to determine the risk level and guide the bidding decision. The evaluation method is combined with an example analysis, and the results show that the comprehensive weight method has high feasibility and reliability, and can truly reflect the risk level of the bidding stage. This method can provide scientific and reasonable risk assessment basis for construction enterprises in actual road and bridge project bidding decision-making, and has a certain reference value and guiding significance.

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