IBN KHALDUN’S CYCLICAL THEORY ON THE RISE AND FALL OF SOVEREIGN POWERS: THE CASE OF OTTOMAN EMPIRE

Ibn Khaldun, who is known as one of the 14th century leading theorists in Islamic political thought, has highly influenced the scholars with his thoughts on economics, history, sociology and philosophy. Due to his opinions and findings, Stowasser regarded him as a father of social sciences. One of his most impressive ideas is the cyclical theory which defines the rise and fall of sovereign powers (dynasties, empires, civilizations, states). The cyclical theory assumes that sovereign powers are like living organisms, they are born, grow up, mature, and die. To explain this pattern, Ibn Khaldun uses his umran and asabiyya concepts. Umran and asabiyya are the glue of the cyclical theory which explains the birth and death of sovereign powers. There are other cyclical theories focused on the rise and fall of sovereign power used by Arnold Toynbee, Oswald Spengler, Giambattista Vico and Sima Qian. These four theories will be compared to Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory with similarities and differences. Also, in the light of Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory, the reasons why and how Ottomans could survive, unlike a lot of strong dynasties in Anatolia, conquered and replaced states and empires as a simple beylik (principality), rose as an empire and later collapsed have been analyzed