Financial Bubble Experiences Quarterly in the Two A5 Countries since 1990: Indonesia and Malaysia

“A5 countries” term means those: Indonesia, S. Korea (Korean Republic), Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. Also these countries are mentioned as “Asian Tiggers” on literature. Moreover, they was at the core of 1997/8 Asian economic crisis. They have experienced the crisis most severly and they have been exposed with the most damage. It is devised two study to examine the financial bubbles happened in the A5 countries, as quarterly. The period, method, and formulas is the same in both studies. The first of them is going to be about bubbles in 3 countries (in S. Korea, Philippines, Thailand), whereas the second is going to be about bubbles in other two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia). This is second of them. In this study the financial bubbles occurred since 1990 in two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia) from A5 are scrutinized in according to quarters. They were looked at the bubbles and bubble burst cases as quarters. They were defined, as amprical, in the basic of quarter datas. So, the quarter datas are used. In the theoric frame and in aspect of the country, bubble is a situation such as that “the change (rise) in financial assets price composed-average- index exceeds total amount of inflation and economic growth rates, too much.” On the other hand, bubble burst is “too severe decline in financial asset price composed index.” This definition is based on that “it is natural to change in asset price index level as much as sum of inflation and economic growth rate.” In normal, it is necessary to rise at financial assets price index as equal as total of inflation and economic growth rate. Also, as simetrically asset price composed index must decline only as severe as decrease exhibited by the sum of them. Otherwise, the situation is always an instability in aspect to financial markets. About the deviation in the assets price index; (i) as the bubble is defined, the criterium is 25%, and (ii) as the bubble burst is defined, the criterium is 20%, in comparison with the sum of inflation and growth rate. Financial bubbles are too severe threats in respect of the country due to the fact that: when the bubble bursts appear, general reliance on economics of the country may collapse. Consequently, it may cause financial fund to run out financial sector and the country. Thus, it may lead to a financial crisis, e.g., a currency or banking crisis