Analysis of Fertility in Turkey: The Importance of Future Fertility Preferences

Fertility analyzes are generally not carried out considering future fertility preferences. However, future fertility preferences should be considered in terms of both family planning and the updating of fertility policies currently in practice. In this study, fertility analysis was conducted using data from 2008 and 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Two models have been created that take into account the future fertility preferences of households and these models have been estimated with the Generalized Poisson Regression Model. It was found that the standard models that do not take into account the future fertility preferences of the households and the findings obtained from the model taking into consideration differ. In the model that takes into account the future fertility preferences of households, it is seen that the coefficient signs of age, marriage age, employment status and husband age variables change. For this reason, policy-makers should be cautious when making a policy towards fertility, because findings from standard analyzes can lead to false policy practices