Financial Fragility Index with Leading Indicators: The Case of Turkey (1990-2017)

In the last 35 years, worldwide financial crises have been very frequent. It is understood that the financial crises have negative effects on national economies in every field, their severity is very heavy and they spread rapidly to other countries. Forth is reason, it is a very important issue for the countries to predict the financial crisis in order to eliminate the problems caused by these problems and crises. Discussed the purpose of the study of the financial crisis, leading indicators for Turkey's economy is to test the predictability of the index. In the study, 7 macroeconomic variables of 1990 and 2017 period were examined and examined. In this study, a separate econometric method has not been preferred and an index has been formed from the combination of accepted indicators. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the selected variables were successful in catching the crisis signal