CAUSALITY RELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INDEX AND FINANCIAL INVESTMENT TOOLS RETURNS: EXAMPLE OF US DOLLAR AND GOLD RETURNS IN 2007-2017 PERIOD

In this study, the causality relation between the economic confidence index and the real returns of financial investment instruments is discussed. Causality analysis of the real returns of US dollars and gold between 2007-2017 on the economic confidence index of the same date range was made with the Granger Causality Test and the data were analyzed in the EViews package program. According to the results, one-way causality was found between the US dollar real return and the economic confidence index. Accordingly, the real effect of the dollar is the reason for the economic confidence index. There is also a negative correlation between these two variables. According to the analyzes, it is observed that the causality relationship between gold real return and economic confidence index is one-sided. Accordingly, the real return of gold is the reason for the economic confidence index. The correlation analysis between these variables was positive