DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF THE OIL PRICES ON THE GOLD PRICES: AN ECONOMETRIC APPLICATION WITH SVAR ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of oil prices which one of the most effective commodities on the markets on gold prices.For this purpose, structural VAR analysis and variance causality tests were performed using Brent oil prices, international gold prices and world inflation variables for the monthly data of 1986: 01-2017: 01 period.According to the estimation results, there is a negative (direct) substitution relationship (around 2.6%) between the variables and the indirectly influence power with the inflation channel on the gold prices of the oil prices is quite weak (about 0.7%).Moreover, there is no indirect effect on the gold prices of volatility in oil prices.In conclusion, the analyzes done in this study show that oil prices are not one of the main factors determining the trend of gold price